Who will win the 2026 Brazilian Presidential Election?
- Flávio Bolsonaro: Yes 62% · No 38%
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva: Yes 38% · No 63%
- Renan Santos: Yes 1% · No 99%
Volume: $1,254
Rules
Market Dates: - Market Period: From the publication date until June 30, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. - Market Close: June 30, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. - Resolution Time: Upon official confirmation of the winning candidate. Resolution Criteria: - This market will resolve to the candidate who is officially declared the winner of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election. - Resolves to "Yes" for the candidate who is officially declared the winner. - Resolves to "No" for all other listed candidates. - This market includes any potential second-round runoff. - If a listed candidate withdraws, is disqualified, or otherwise does not appear on the final ballot before voting begins, that candidate's outcome will resolve to "No", unless they are nevertheless officially declared the winner before resolution occurs. Resolution Details: - If the result of this election is not known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No" for all outcomes. Resolution Sources - This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. - In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official results published by Brazil's Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE). Cancellation Conditions: - Any circumstance that makes the outcome impossible to determine using the specified criteria. If the market is cancelled, participants can claim their stakes at the then-current market value of their shares, which could